Kaufman, Bruno (2017) Sistemas dinámicos forzados: aplicación al estudio de las enfermedades infecciosas. / Driven dymamical systems: application to the study of infectious diseases. Maestría en Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Instituto Balseiro.
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Resumen en español
En este trabajo analizó una colección de bibliografía y datos relativos al comportamiento epidemiológico del virus dengue en la provincia de Misiones, en el norte de Argentina. Se realizaron simulaciones computacionales con modelos de tipo susceptible-infectado-recuperado (SIR) con demografía y población conservada, teniendo en cuenta la conectividad entre poblaciones y la inmigración fronteriza en el termino de transmisión. Además se tuvo en cuenta la estacionalidad en la transmisión debida a la incubación del virus en el vector y la supervivencia del mismo en distintas épocas del año. Realizando simulaciones computacionales se encontró que la estacionalidad de la migración también es importante para reproducir el comportamiento temporal de los casos de dengue reportados. También se planteó un modelo especialmente explicito, haciendo tender los modelos metapoblacionales vistos a un límite contínuo. Finalmente, se implementaron dos algoritmos de ajuste de modelos de campo medio o metapoblacionales a series temporales epidemiológicas, sobre la unidad de procesamiento gráfica (GPU). Se probaron ambos métodos y se encontró que un ajuste por filtrado multi-iterado (MIF) logro buenos resultados, llegando a ajustar un modelo de campo medio SIR demográfíco con estacionalidad de cuatro parámetros a una serie temporal de datos epidemiológicos de la gripe.
Resumen en inglés
In this study, we analyzed a set of literature and relevant data to ascertain key aspects describing the epidemiological behavior of dengue fever in Misiones, in the north of Argentina. Computer simulations were done with Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models with demographics and constant population, but taking into account connectivity between cities and border inmigration in the transmission term. The seasonality in transmission due to the incubation of the virus within the mosquito was also taken into account, as well as the vector's survival throughout the year. Computer simulations showed that seasonality in the inmigration term is also very important for reproducing temporal patterns in the observed dengue cases. An spacially explicit model was also developed applying a discrete-to-continuous limit to the previously developed metapopulation models. Finally, we implemented two tting algorithms on General Purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) in order to t mean-eld and metapopulation models to epidemiological time-series data. We tested both methods, and found that a multi-iterated filtering algorithm gives good results tting a four-parameter mean-eld demographic SIR model with seasonal transmission to a flu time-series.
| Tipo de objeto: | Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias Físicas) |
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| Palabras Clave: | Epidemiology; Epidemiología; Infectious diseases; Enfermedades infecciosas; [Dengue; Metapopulation model; Modelo metaploblacional; Iterated filtering; Ajuste por filtro iterado; SIR model; Modelo SIR; Seasonal trasmission; Transmisión estacional] |
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| Materias: | Física > Sistemas complejos |
| Divisiones: | Gcia. de área de Investigación y aplicaciones no nucleares > Gcia. de Física > Sistemas complejos y altas energías > Física estadística interdisciplinaria |
| Código ID: | 651 |
| Depositado Por: | Tamara Cárcamo |
| Depositado En: | 26 Abr 2018 15:30 |
| Última Modificación: | 27 Abr 2018 10:49 |
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